Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data
نویسنده
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
We compare the shortto mediumterm accuracy of five variants or extensions of the LeeCarter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1...
متن کاملUsing Life Table Techniques to Model Mortality Rates for Small Populations
The study of human longevity has been a popular research topic due to the prolonging of life. However, the limited availability and poor quality of elderly data increase the difficulty of mortality modeling. It is particularly challenging if the size of the target population is small, and the parameter estimation of stochastic mortality models can be distorted. For example, the famous Lee-Carte...
متن کاملBayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sourc...
متن کاملA comparison of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates
Using the ageand sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the shortto medium-term accuracy of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. These ten methods include the Lee-Carter method and many of its variants and extensions. For forecasting mortality rates, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts, whi...
متن کاملThe Future Aged: New Projections of Australia’s Elderly Population
Objectives: To use new methodology to forecast mortality for use in projections of the elderly population of Australia and to compare them with official projections. Method: The Lee-Carter method is applied to data for Australian females and males for 1968–2000 to forecast mortality to 2031. These forecasts are used with standard population projection methods to produce projections of the elder...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2003